Video game hardware sales in December 2009 exceeded market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 10,444,700, 12.54% better than the market's expectation for 9,281,000 units sold. Hardware sales grew 16% over last year.

NPD Analyst Anita Frazier comments: "There are a lot of hardware records this month.  The PS3 realized it's biggest month of sales ever, and the first time sales have exceeded 1 million units.  The Wii and the DS also had their biggest sales months ever, and in fact the two platforms hold the top two spots in sales of any hardware device in a single month.  Overall, it was the biggest month of sales for hardware on both a dollar and unit basis."

Software sales came in 4.9% better than expected; however, this was still a 7% drop from December 2008.

Frazier adds: "The best-selling game of the month was New Super Mario Bros. Wii, which also captures the third spot on the annual top 10 list for 2009. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has become the fourth best-selling game of all time. In fact, 3 of the top 10 games of all time are Call of Duty games."

"Madden NFL 10 had a big month selling 1.5 million units across all platforms, besting last December's performance of the '09 game.  December's sales made up some of the lost ground realized out the gate when the title came to market in August."

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

• US Hardware in December 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo Wii	3,810,000	2,979,800	+27.86%
  Nintendo DS	3,310,000	2,842,400	+16.45%
  Xbox 360	1,310,000	1,452,100	-9.79%
  PLAYSTATION 3	1,360,000	1,375,300	-1.11%
  PlayStation Portable	654,700	631,400	+3.69%
  PlayStation 2	333,200	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	10,444,700	9,281,000	+12.54%

• US Software in December 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	New Super Mario Bros (Wii)	2,820,000	2,287,000	+23.31%
  2	Wii Fit Plus	2,410,000	--	--
  3	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	1,790,000	1,151,900	+55.4%
  4	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360)	1,630,000	1,678,700	-2.9%
  5	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)	1,120,000	872,900	+28.31%
  6	Wii Play (Wii)	1,010,000	--	--
  7	Mario Kart (Wii)	936,100	--	--
  8	Assassin's Creed II (Xbox 360)	783,100	856,300	-8.55%
  9	Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360)	728,500	707,300	+3.00%
  10	Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (DS)	656,700	--	--
  	Total Software Sales	$2,580.0M	$2,458.7M	+4.93%
  	Total Tracked Software Units	8,871,600	9,229,600	-3.88%

The market also tracked the sales of Guitar Hero 5 (Wii), The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (DS), and Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Wii), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 65.67 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

January Monthly Sales Futures for hardware and software are making their debut Wednesday.

Please remember, we have tweaked the IPO system so that when IPOs close and begin normal trading, they will do so at a random hour of the day. This change was made to address complaints by many players that people who are able to access the web site exactly at 11AM Pacific time have an unfair advantage. This should also reduce the orders for the stock at the moment the IPO is released for normal trading.

Also remember, for Monthly Software Futures of games that do not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title.

What is an IPO? This is when a stock first appears for trading. On the simExchange, you will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

Bayonetta (PS3) and Dark Void (PS3) was suggested by Refreshment. Bayonetta (Xbox 360) was suggested by soupsoup. Army of Two: The 40th Day was suggested by PhilHarrison.

• January Console Futures

  IPO Date	Title	Company	IPO Price
  1/13	Xbox 360	Microsoft	36 DKP
  1/13	PLAYSTATION 3	Sony	34 DKP
  1/13	Wii	Nintendo	50 DKP
  1/14	Nintendo DS	Nintendo	45 DKP
  1/14	PlayStation Portable	Sony	15 DKP
  1/14	Total Software Sales	ALL	60 DKP

• January Monthly Sales Futures

  IPO Date	Title	Platform	Company	MSF IPO Price	GLS IPO Price
  1/13	Bayonetta	PS3	Sega	15 DKP	100 DKP
  1/13	Bayonetta	Xbox 360	Sega	15 DKP	110 DKP
  1/14	Darksiders	Xbox 360	THQ	15 DKP	N/A
  1/15	Army of Two: The 40th Day	Xbox 360	Electronic Arts	15 DKP	100 DKP
  1/15	Army of Two: The 40th Day	PS3	Electronic Arts	15 DKP	150 DKP
  1/16	Dark Void	PS3	Capcom	15 DKP	100 DKP
  1/17	MAG	PS3	Sony	25 DKP	N/A
  1/17	Mass Effect 2	Xbox 360	Electronic Arts	35 DKP	N/A
  1/18	Modern Warfare 2	Xbox 360	Activision Blizzard	25 DKP	N/A
  1/18	Modern Warfare 2	PS3	Activision Blizzard	20 DKP	N/A
  1/18	New Super Mario Bros Wii	Wii	Nintendo	30 DKP	N/A
  1/18	Wii Sports Resort	Wii	Nintendo	20 DKP	N/A

• December 2009 Top 5 Traders

  Rank	Name	% Change
  1	samdavis	+42.67%
  2	KSBinc	+38.86%
  3	ScottCroft	+34.79%
  4	Rorsch	+33.35%
  5	aesharmor	+22.62%

Check out the complete December 2009 rankings.

• November 2009 Top 5 Traders

  Rank	Name	% Change
  1	samdavis	+57.11%
  2	ScottCroft	+47.66%
  3	argon	+29.63%
  4	marcinkonmn	+16.84%
  5	yajimari21	+15.40%

Check out the complete November 2009 rankings.

The following stocks are candidates for delisting. These stocks were chosen for delisting due to inactivity in the stock and/or lack of discussion for an extended period of time. Delisting stocks is necessary to unlock DKP for trading and concentrate DKP in the stocks people are trading.

All shares will cash out at the last traded price. This price is determined as the fair value as the market has not viewed the price as undervalued or overvalued for some time. These stocks will no longer appear when browsing the genres and platforms pages. You will still be able to view the stocks' pages by searching for the games.

If you feel any of the following should not be delisted due to an upcoming event (such as the game has not yet been released in all regions), please make a case and post in this forum by 11AM PT on Tuesday, December 15. A stock price that you are not happy with is not grounds for continued listing.

GLS Stocks pending delisting:
Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC)
Dead Space (PS3)
Dead Space (Xbox 360)
de Blob (Wii)
F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin (Xbox 360)
F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin (PS3)
Left 4 Dead (PC)
Madworld (PC)
Silent Hill: Homecoming (Xbox 360)
Silent Hill: Homecoming (PS3)
Street Fighter IV (Xbox 360)
Street Fighter IV (PS3)
Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii)
Tomb Raider: Underworld (PS3)

• US Hardware in November 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	1,700,000	1,728,200	-1.63%
  Nintendo Wii	1,260,000	1,183,800	+6.44%
  Xbox 360	819,500	713,600	+14.84%
  PLAYSTATION 3	710,400	787,600	-9.80%
  PlayStation Portable	293,900	323,900	-9.26%
  PlayStation 2	203,100	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	1,406,000	1,486,700	-5.43%

• US Software in November 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360)	4,200,000	3,243,300	+29.50%
  2	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)	1,870,000	1,499,700	+24.69%
  3	New Super Mario Bros (Wii)	1,390,000	1,371,400	+1.36%
  4	Assassin's Creed II (Xbox 360)	794,700	749,000	+6.1%
  5	Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360)	744,000	731,300	+1.74%
  6	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	720,200	523,700	-27.28%
  7	Wii Fit Plus (Wii)	679,000	--	--
  8	Assassin's Creed II (PS3)	448,400	455,300	-1.52%
  9	Dragon Age: Origins (Xbox 360)	362,100	--	--
  10	Mario Kart (Wii)	315,000	--	--
  	Total Software Sales	$1,406M	$1,486.7M	-5.43%

The market also tracked the sales of Grand Theft Auto 4: Episodes from Liberty City (Xbox 360), DJ Hero (Xbox 360), and Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Wii), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 31.50 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

• US Hardware in October 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo Wii	506,900	564,300	-10.17%
  Nintendo DS	457,600	487,500	-6.13%
  PLAYSTATION 3	320,600	374,600	-14.42%
  Xbox 360	249,700	292,400	-14.60%
  PlayStation Portable	174,600	170,100	+2.65%
  PlayStation 2	117,800	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	1,709,400	1,888,900	-9.50%

• US Software in October 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3)	537,000	550,000	-2.36%
  2	Wii Fit Plus (Wii)	441,000	--	--
  3	Borderlands (Xbox 360)	418,000	--	--
  4	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	314,000	--	--
  5	NBA 2K10 (Xbox 360)	311,000	--	--
  6	Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360)	271,100	--	--
  7	NBA 2K10 (PS3)	213,000	--	--
  8	Forza Motorsport 3 (Xbox 360)	175,000	--	--
  9	Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS)	169,000	--	--
  10	FIFA Soccer 10 (Xbox 360)	156,000	--	--
  	Total Software Sales	$572.73M	$585.20M	-2.13%

The market also tracked the sales of Brutal Legend (Xbox 360), DJ Hero (Xbox 360), Gran Turismo Mobile (PSP), Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Wii), and Tekken 6 (PS3)which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 15.60 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

Video game hardware sales in September 2009 were in line with market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 2.02 million, 2.2% better than the market's expectation for 1.98 million units sold. PS3 led the pack, doubling its sales year-over-year, following a price cut to $299. Anita Frazier of NPD Group comments: "All three console manufacturers enjoyed the impact of lower prices on unit sales as the PS3, Wii, and Xbox 360 realized an increase over August of 87%,  33%, and 31% respectively, on an average sales per week basis (keeping in mind September was a 5-week month compared to 4-weeks in August)."

Growth in video game sales was positive year-over-year this month, posting a 5% gain. However, the $649.32 million in sales severely underperformed traders' expectations for $756.4 million in sales.

Frazier adds that "Halo 3: ODST realized impressive sales making it the 6th best-selling SKU launch of all time." However, its sales of 1.52 million units underperformed the market's expectations by 13.3%.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

• US Hardware in September 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	524,200	632,700	-17.15%
  PLAYSTATION 3	491,800	426,000	+15.45%
  Nintendo Wii	462,800	397,900	+16.32%
  Xbox 360	352,600	339,000	+4.01%
  PlayStation Portable	190,400	183,000	+4.04%
  PlayStation 2	146,000	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	2,024,000	1,978,600	+2.18%

• US Software in September 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360)	1,520,000	1,752,800	-13.28%
  2	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	442,900	--	--
  3	Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360)	289,600	--	--
  4	Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (DS)	258,100	--	--
  5	The Beatles: Rock Band (Xbox 360)	254,000	358,800	-29.21%
  6	Madden NFL 10 (PS3)	246,500	--	--
  7	Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Xbox 360)	236,000	253,000	-6.72%
  8	Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3)	212,500	--	--
  9	Guitar Hero 5 (Xbox 360)	210,800	310,300	-32.07%
  10	The Beatles: Rock Band (Wii)	208,600	310,000	-32.71%
  	Total Software Sales	$649.32M	$756.4M	-14.16%
  	Total Tracked Software Units	2,429,400	2,984,900	-18.61%

The market also tracked the sales of Guitar Hero 5 (PS3), Guitar Hero 5 (Wii), Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 (PS3), and Beatles: Rock Band (PS3) which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 20.86 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

December Monthly Sales Futures for hardware and software are making their debut Saturday.

Please remember, we have tweaked the IPO system so that when IPOs close and begin normal trading, they will do so at a random hour of the day. This change was made to address complaints by many players that people who are able to access the web site exactly at 11AM Pacific time have an unfair advantage. This should also reduce the orders for the stock at the moment the IPO is released for normal trading.

Also remember, for Monthly Software Futures of games that do not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title.

What is an IPO? This is when a stock first appears for trading. On the simExchange, you will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

The Legend of Zelda: Spirit tracks was suggested by PhilHarrison.

A special thanks to Joe80, Apujanata, and Jonman for putting together a list of games for this month's futures.

• December Console Futures

  IPO Date	Title	Company	IPO Price
  10/17	Xbox 360	Microsoft	150 DKP
  10/18	PLAYSTATION 3	Sony	150 DKP
  10/19	Wii	Nintendo	200 DKP
  10/20	Nintendo DS	Nintendo	200 DKP
  10/21	PlayStation Portable	Sony	70 DKP
  10/22	Total Software Sales	ALL	270 DKP

• December Monthly Sales Futures

  IPO Date	Title	Platform	Company	MSF IPO Price	GLS IPO Price
  10/17	The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks	DS	Nintendo	110 DKP	500 DKP
  10/18	Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games	Wii	Nintendo	45 DKP	N/A
  10/19	Wii Sports Resort	Wii	Nintendo	70 DKP	N/A
  10/20	Modern Warfare 2	Xbox 360	Activision Blizzard	180 DKP	N/A
  10/21	Modern Warfare 2	PS3	Activision Blizzard	90 DKP	N/A
  10/22	New Super Mario Bros Wii	Wii	Nintendo	150 DKP	N/A
  10/23	Guitar Hero 5	Wii	Activision Blizzard	60 DKP	N/A
  10/24	Assassin's Creed 2	Xbox 360	Ubisoft	60 DKP	N/A
  10/25	Left 4 Dead 2	Xbox 360	Valve	40 DKP	N/A

Just heard from David Riley at NPD Group. The release of September 2009 data has been delayed until 6:30 PM EDT Monday, October 19. We will reactivate the Monthly Sales Futures for trading. Trading will cease on the end of Sunday, October 18.