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US March 2007 Futures expiration complete


All futures have been paid out. As previously mentioned, we apologize for the bumpiness regarding when NPD would be releasing March 2007 US sales data. After deep deliberation, we have considered all trades up to the point we closed trading of the US March 2007 futures to be valid.

The logic is that data is commonly leaked and priced into the real financial markets. There is always a probability that data will emerge earlier than expected and traders will price that information into the stock prices before other traders have the chance to take advantage of that data. This has commonly occurred when sales data emerges around the Internet and is priced into the simExchange stocks.

We are also aware that some other prediction markets allow trading to fully price in information before the contracts are locked for expiration. We had hoped to avert this because we understand that it also becomes very easy money; however, similar situations do occur with simExchange stocks when the sales data has surpassed the current prediction and players jump in to buy shares that are guaranteed profits. Furthermore, players trading on data they found on forums around the Internet were not trading with any ill intent to manipulate prices.

As previously noted, this was a test process. Suggestions for the future are welcome.