May 2009 NPD Data

Video game hardware sales in May 2009 were in line with the market's low expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 1.33 million, inline with the market's expectation for 1.33 million units sold. The market appears to have priced in the effect of the recession after last month's disappointing sales. The Nintendo DS outsold expectations, making up for less than epected Wii and PSP sales. Xbox 360 and PS3 sold directly inline with market predictions.

Growth in video game software sales was once again negative year-over-year. Total video game software sales contracted another 17% from $540 million in May 2008 to $448.9 million. Traders on the simExchange prediction market expected $523.5 million in sales. Tracked software units sold directly in line, implying that unit sales were as expected but pricing was weaker. Anita Frazier of NPD Group commented: "Unit sales declined less than dollar sales did.  The dollar sales decline was exacerbated by a decline in average retail prices for almost all of the categories."

The star of May was clearly UFC 2009 Undisputed. The Xbox 360 version sold nearly twice as expected. New comer Wii Sports Active (Wii) also saw a strong opening. Frazier adds: "While there were some very strong new releases this month along with continued strong sales of evergreen games, this month's top 10 games sold 2.6 million units combined, whereas last year the top 10 sold 3.7 million units.  Again this illustrates how tough the comparisons are to last year."

Previewing June activity, Frazier remarks: "there are some promising games coming out this month between Sims 3 (PC), Prototype, Red Faction, Virtua Tennis, Ghostbusters, Transformers and Tiger Woods just to name a few.  At E3, it was notable how many games were targeted to the tween girl demographic, and this June will see a number of games introduced for girls as well.  June comparisons are still likely to be tough, but the wide variety of new content could help reinvigorate things somewhat."

The market also tracked the sales of Bionic Commando (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Future will cash out at 10.98 DKP.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

• US Hardware in May 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	633,500	546,200	+15.98%
  Nintendo Wii	289,500	350,800	-17.47%
  Xbox 360	175,000	176,800	-1.02%
  PLAYSTATION 3	131,000	134,500	-2.60%
  PlayStation 2	117,000	--	--
  PlayStation Portable	100,400	125,800	-20.19%
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	1,329,400	1,334,100	-0.35%

• US Software in May 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360)	679,600	342,600	+98.37%
  2	Wii Fit (Wii)	352,800	407,400	-13.40%
  3	Wii Sports Active (Wii)	345,800	301,200	+14.81%
  4	UFC 2009 Undisputed (PS3)	334,400	--	--
  5	Infamous (PS3)	175,900	--	--
  6	Pokemon Platinum (DS)	168,900	--	--
  7	Mario Kart (Wii)	158,300	--	--
  8	Punch Out!! (Wii)	156,900	235,500	-33.38%
  9	X-Men Origins: Wolverine Uncaged (Xbox 360)	120,700	144,000	-16.18%
  10	Wii Play (Wii)	109,800	201,300	-45.45%
  	Total Software Sales	$448.9M	$523.5M	-14.25%
  	Total Tracked Software Units	1,934.5M	1,953.2M	-0.96%

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.