February 2010 NPD Sales Data

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

• US Hardware in February 2010

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	613,200	462,000	+32.73%
  Xbox 360	422,000	335,700	+25.71%
  Nintendo Wii	397,900	500,900	-20.56%
  PLAYSTATION 3	360,100	263,700	+36.56%
  PlayStation Portable	133,400	108,900	+22.50%
  PlayStation 2	101,900	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	1,926,600	1,671,200	+15.28%

• US Software in February 2010

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	BioShock (Xbox 360)	562,900	477,700	+17.84%
  2	New Super Mario Bros (Wii)	555,700	482,100	+15.27%
  3	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360)	314,300	--	--
  4	Just Dance	275,400	--	--
  5	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	272,500	267,500	+1.87%
  6	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)	252,800	--	--
  7	Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360)	246,500	365,400	-32.54%
  8	Dante's Inferno (PS3)	242,500	174,700	+38.81%
  9	Dante's Inferno (Xbox 360)	224,700	184,500	+21.79%
  10	Heavy Rain (PS3)	219,300	205,700	+6.61%
  	Total Software Sales	$624.4M	$644.8M	-3.16%
  	Total Tracked Software Units	2,324,100	2,576,600	-9.80%

The market also tracked the sales of BioShock 2 (PS3) and White Knight Chronicles (PS3), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 21.93 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).