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NPD releases April sales data, prediction market and analyst compared

Posted by Brian Shiau at 5:02PM on May 17, 2007

Last month was the first month the simExchange (the free to play video game stock market game) has traded monthly hybrid futures contracts to predict NPD US video game sales data. In this trial run, trading on the simExchange appeared to be relatively more accurate than expert predictions. To quickly review, the following table depicts actual sales as reported by NPD Group, the prediction by trading on the simExchange, the error of the simExchange's forecast, the prediction by leading Wall Street firm Wedbush Morgan, and the error of Wedbush Morgan's forecast:

US Hardware March 2007

ConsoleActual Sales*The simExchange**ErrorWedbush Morgan***Error
Nintendo DS
508k
492.8K
-2.99%
250K
-50.79%
Nintendo Wii
259k
385.0K
+48.65%
400K
+54.44%
Microsoft Xbox 360
199k
231.0K
+16.08%
250K
+25.63%
Sony PlayStation Portable
180K
180.5K
+0.28%
210K
+16.67%
Sony PlayStation 3
130k
144.0K
+10.77%
165k
+26.92%

NPD has released its findings for US April 2007 video game sales. The following charts compare actual sales numbers determined by the NPD Group with forecasts from market trading on the simExchange and predictions by leading Wall Street analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan.

US Hardware April 2007

RankConsoleActual Sales*The simExchange**ErrorWedbush Morgan****Error
1.
 Nintendo DS
471k
548.9K
+16.54%
450K
-4.46%
2.
 Nintendo Wii
360k
319.5K
-11.25%
300K
-16.67%
3.
 Sony PlayStation 2
194k
Not listed
N/A
250K
+29.87%
4.
 Sony PlayStation Portable
183K
190.4K
+4.04%
200K
+9.29%
5.
 Microsoft Xbox 360
174k
194.8K
+11.95%
175K
+0.57%
6.
 Nintendo GameBoy Advance
84k
Not listed
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.
 Sony PlayStation 3
82k
107.3K
+30.85%
100k
+21.95%
8.
 Nintendo GameCube
13k
Not listed
N/A
N/A
N/A

The simExchange did not trade monthly hybrid futures for game software this month. However, NPD's Top 10 is still relevant for comparing how trading on the simExchange is forecasting lifetime, global sales of the games.

US Software Top 10 April 2007

RankTitlePublisherApril Sales*Lifetime Forecast**
1.
 Pokemon Diamond (DS)
Nintendo
1.045M
18.21M
2.
 Pokemon Pearl (DS)
Nintendo
712K
18.21M
3.
 Super Paper Mario (Wii)
Nintendo
352K
1.83M
4.
 Wii Play w/remote (Wii)
Nintendo
249K
4.90M
5.
 Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (Xbox 360)
Activision
197K
1.30M
6.
 Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (PS2)
Activision
142K
Not listed
7.
 Spider-Man 3 (Xbox 360)
Activision
117K
1.07M
8.
 Spider-Man 3 (PS2)
Activision
105K
1.62M
9.
 God of War II (PS2)
Sony
101K
1.92M
10.
 MLB '07: The Show (PS2)
Sony
79K
Not listed

Although data is still limited, initial predictions on the simExchange video game prediction market appear to be relatively accurate (compared with traditional predictors), and in some cases, absolutely accurate (compared with the actual result). The prediction market out performed the analyst on every prediction in March and was split in April.

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

Joining and playing the simExchange is completely free and does not involve any real money. To play, sign up here.

* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** GameDaily Biz, April 13, 2007
**** GameDaily Biz, May 14, 2007