The simExchange now features a new welcome page to greet new visitors. We know the regular front page can be a bit intimidating/overwhelming/daunting for some gamers who are checking out a prediction market for the first time and have no idea what a stock market has to do with video games. Members who have their browser set to remember log in will automatically go to the standard front page.
As we build the simExchange community further, we want appeal to a larger audience beyond those who are already familiar with "the Wisdom of the Crowds." We will try to make the simExchange easier to learn and easier to find all the different features. Feedback is always welcome.
I am writing this post in regard to an issue that has come up with Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Gold Edition. Traders have asked if the sales of a new version that contains some new characters should be included with the sales of
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (Xbox 360). This brings a smile to my face as the community has grown to debate the finer points of accounting.
I believe the goal of the simExhcnage stocks are to forecast the demand for a particular game on a particular platform.
If a game was popular enough that the publisher decides to release it again, like a Greatest Hit Edition, or a Game of the Year Edition, or a Gold Edition, that may contain some extras, that the second running be considered the same game
as the original published run.
If Bethesda chooses to do what they did with Morrowind on the Xbox and release Oblivion again on the Xbox 360 with Nights of Nine and the armored horse download (all costing a nominal fee on XBL) I believe it would make sense to count the
sales of this new version towards the sales of the original stock (though Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (Xbox 360) is not listed on the simExchange).
We have already been including Collector's Editions and Director's cuts as part of the game's stock value. I believe this was discussed recently in regard to Persona 3. This is similar to including the sales of DS and DS lite in the Nintendo DS stock. It is unlikely we will ever list a second publishing of a game on
the same platform as a separate stock.
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The following is the IPO schedule for the week of June 25. The summaries for
these stock listings are entirely user submitted with no editorial review. If
the information is inaccurate, please suggest changes in the Wiki.
June 25, Monday: No listings.
June 26, Tuesday: Ubisofts's Brothers in Arms DS (DS),
will debut at 30 DKP. The listing was submitted by Laoldar.
June 27, Wednesday: Tecmo's
Ninja Gaiden Sigma (PS3) will debut at 65 DKP. The listing was submitted by Zukaus.
June 28, Thursday: Electronic Arts's Harry
Potter and the Order of the Phoenix for the PC, DS, PSP,
PS2, PS3,
Wii, Xbox 360
will debut at 25 DKP, 30 DKP, 25 DKP, 100 DKP, 60 DKP, 80 DKP, and 110 DKP respectively.
The listings were submitted by namorado, SyrinxPriest, and Johnpv.
June 29, Friday: Codemaster's Overlord (Xbox 360) and
Overlord (PC)
will debut at 90 DKP and 35 DKP respectively.The listings were submitted by SERAPHRowen.
June 30, Saturday: Aksys Games' Hoshigami Remix (DS), .
will debut at 30 DKP. The listings were submitted by JackiJinx.
July 1, Sunday: Ignition Entertainment's Mercury Meltdown Revolution (Wii), .
will debut at 40 DKP. The listings were submitted by Paroxysm.
The notorious duplicate position bug should now be fixed. If a stock appears twice in your long or short positions, please report it immediately. Please make sure that your portfolio is properly accounted when you make trades. Thanks.
There had been some question before the June hybrid futures contracts were listed whether the month of June covered five weeks of sales rather than four weeks. In our obliviousness of this retail data accounting method, we IPOed the June hybrid futures at the expiration of the May hybrid futures. We got word from NPD that June is in fact a five-week month. This means the current futures predictions are priced one week short.
Martin at NPD explained to me that this actually is not an NPD invention but the retail industry’s standard calendar. “Retailers track and report their data on a weekly basis, with each week running from Sunday through Saturday. When they calculate monthly sales, they add up the weeks - since they historically didn't have daily sales data available, they didn't actually calculate the exact month's sales (e.g. June 1st to June 30th), they just add up the nearest 4 or 5 weeks, depending on the month.”
“The official retail industry calendar has March, June, September and December as 5-week months, with the rest being 4-week months. And since a year is slightly more than 52 weeks, every few years there's a "leap year" declared and one of the months gets an extra week to keep the retail calendar's months roughly in sync with the regular calendar. This past February was a 5-week month for that reason, which made year-on-year growth comparisons for that month a bit biased.”
“There are other oddities caused by the retail-vs-actual calendar gaps. For example, if a game is release in the first or last couple of days in a month, and if those days end up in a different retail month, a game might either show no sales in the month it's released (e.g. if it released May 30th and ended up in June data) or it might show sales in the month prior to its actual release (e.g. if it releases the 1st of a month, but that date is included in the prior retail month).”
Now this is all common knowledge among industry professionals, but may be something new to you. These accounting differences are important because they affect the forecasts in ways that may be unexpected to the average gamer. So now you know, if June sales are larger than May sales, it doesn’t mean the console is actually selling better because the “month” is including a longer time period. Thanks to Martin for explaining this. For listing hybrid futures contracts 25% too low, we can only blame our noobishness and scream “beta” in defense.
The Most Valued News pages have been updated to include only the articles, images, and videos submitted within the past 3 days. This change was made to make the section more relevant as players check the pages daily and more content is submitted to the site. Currently, an article requires over 8 bids to earn a "valued" bonus. Please see the current rates on the Game Rules.
You can now refer people to the simExchange without having to send them a formal
invitation. The new Reusable Referral Link allows you to refer anyone from your blog or message board posts. Unlike the link that accompanies an email invitiation, the Reusable Referral Link is reusable (surprise!). People who sign up using your referral link also will not automatically become your
friend on the simExchange.
Several pages support this new referral feature, including the simExchange homepage,
individual stock and futures pages, and the Console Wars page. More pages will be added in the future.
Additionally, the bonus for referrals has now been increased to 25,000 DKP. You also get all the bonuses from the achievements your referred member attains. Now go tag the Internet!
The following is the IPO schedule for the week of June 17. The summaries for these stock listings are entirely user submitted with no editorial review. If
the information is inaccurate, please suggest changes in the Wiki.
June 18, Monday: Console hybrid futures. See US June 2007 Console hybrid futures to begin trading tomorrow
June 19, Tuesday: Activision's Transformers: The Game for the Xbox 360,
PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, and PC will debut at 50 DKP, 40 DKP, 40 DKP, 50 DKP, 15 DKP, and 15 DKP.
The listings were submitted by Joe80, KivaAndrew,
rp_stitch, and sbrousseau.
June 20, Wednesday: Electronic Art's
Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning (PC) will debut at 100 DKP.
The listing was submitted by Arydian.
June 21, Thursday: Electronic Arts's Skate (Xbox 360)
and Skate (PS3) will debut at 50 DKP and 40 DKP respectively.
The listings were submitted by shrapnelmagnet.
June 22, Friday: Midways's Hour of Victory (Xbox 360)
will debut at 80 DKP.The listing was submitted by J3s5e. THQ's
Smackdown! vs Raw 2008 (PSP)
will debut at 40 DKP.The listing was submitted by Audit_God.
June 23, Saturday: Codemaster's DiRT (Xbox 360),
DiRT (PS3), and DiRT (PC).
will debut at 45 DKP, 30 DKP, and 30 DKP respectively. The listings were submitted by Joe80.
The simExchange will begin trading US June 2007 console sales hybrid futures tomorrow.
Like stocks, the prices of the hybrid futures contracts on IPO day will remain the same all day. These hybrid futures contracts
forecast the unit sales NPD Group will report for the month of June 2007.
Xbox 360 US June 2007 | 15.50 DKP | 155K units |
PlayStation 3 US June 2007 | 8.20 DKP | 82K units |
Wii US June 2007 | 33.80 DKP | 338K units |
Nintendo DS US June 2007 | 42.30 DKP | 423K units |
PSP US June 2007 | 22.10 DKP | 221K units |
All May Console Hybrid Futures have been settled and paid out:
Xbox 360 US May 2007 | 15.5 DKP | 155K units | -19.73% |
PlayStation 3 US May 2007 | 8.2 DKP | 82K units | +6.63% |
Wii US May 2007 | 33.8 DKP | 338K units | -13.02% |
Nintendo DS US May 2007 | 42.3 DKP | 423K units | -11.88% |
PSP US May 2007 | 22.1 DKP | 221K units | +24.58% |