In the third month of trading hybrid futures to predict NPD's monthly console sales data, it appears the Crowd is continuing to outperform one of the leading Wall Street analysts. This month, the traders on the simExchange were closer on the sales of four out of five consoles. In March and April, the Crowd was more accurate on seven out of ten predictions. Once again, we compare the aggregate predictions made by everyday gamers and those of the venerable Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan.

US Hardware May 2007

How exactly does this work? Gamers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy stocks and futures that under predict sales and short sell stocks and futures that over predict sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."

The simExchange did not trade monthly hybrid futures for game software this month. However, NPD's Top 10 is still relevant for comparing how trading on the simExchange is forecasting lifetime, global sales of the games.

US Software Top 10 May 2007

Although data is still limited, initial predictions on the simExchange video game prediction market appear to be relatively accurate (compared with traditional predictors), and in some cases, absolutely accurate (compared with the actual result).

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** GameDaily Biz, June 11, 2007

Preliminary numbers for NPD's May sales data have sprouted up around the Internet. However, we will be delaying the settlement of console hybrid futures until tomorrow when we receive official results from NPD directly. Thank you for your patience.

The following is the IPO schedule for the week of June 11. The summaries for these stock listings are entirely user submitted with no editorial review. If the information is inaccurate, please suggest changes in the Wiki.

June 11, Monday: Nintendo Co Ltd's Planet Puzzle League (DS) will debut at 30 DKP. Vivendi Universal's Scarface (Wii) will debut at 20 DKP. The listings were submitted by Gaara42 and pekoo.

June 12, Tuesday: Take-Two Interactive's Fantastic Four for the Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, DS, and PSP will debut at 40 DKP, 25 DKP, 25 DKP, 35 DKP, 20 DKP, and 15 DKP. The listings were submitted by KivaAndrew.

June 13, Wednesday: Nintendo Co Ltd's Big Brain Academy (Wii) will debut at 200 DKP. The listing was submitted by boontje.

June 14, Thursday: THQ Inc's WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2008 for the Wii, PS3, Xbox 360 will debut at 80 DKP, 60 DKP, and 125 DKP. The listings were submitted by munaaf.

June 15, Friday: Activision Inc's Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare for the Xbox 360, PS3, and PCwill debut at 170 DKP, 80 DKP, and 100 DKP. The listings were submitted by Joe80 and sbrousseau.

June 16, Saturday: Electronic Arts Inc's My Sims (Wii) and My Sims (DS) will debut at 200 DKP and 300 DKP. The listings were submitted by jayen.

May Console Hybrid Futures are scheduled to expire on Wednesday June 13, 2007 ahead of NPD's release on June 14. Trading will end at 11:30 PM PST. Settlement will occur Thursday evening following NPD's release.

Following the news that Bethesda Softwork's Fallout 3 will also be hitting the Xbox 360 and PS3, the IPO price for Fallout 3 (PC) has been revised down to 140 DKP from 200 DKP. Fallout 3 (Xbox 360) and Fallout 3 (PS3) will also make a debut on the simExchange on Saturday, June 9 at 150 DKP and 60 DKP respectively.

The bugs that have caused the wild price changes in Nintendo DS and PSP stocks have now been fixed. Any problems you may have experienced this morning that prevented you from trading should also be fixed. Please report any problems you may encounter using the Contact Us form.

Nintendo DS and PSP stock were frozen from trading this morning to review questions in recent trades. All trades on Nintendo DS since 7:28 AM PST on June 3 have been rolled back due to a bug in the new trading system that was rolled out on June 2 in conjunction with coordinated trading by multiple accounts. All trading on PSP stock has been rolled back to 9:03 AM PST on June 3. Nintendo DS and PSP stocks have been opened for trading once again. We apologize for the trouble this may have caused you.

Additionally, the IPO for LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga (Wii) has been revised to 85 DKP from 70 DKP.

The following is the IPO schedule for the week of June 3. The summaries for these stock listings are entirely user submitted with no editorial review. If the information is inaccurate, please suggest changes in the Wiki.

June 3, Monday: Namco Bandai's Eternal Sonata (Xbox 360) will debut at 80 DKP. The listing was submitted by Joe80.

June 4, Tuesday: Codemasters' Heatseeker for the Wii, PS2, and PSP will debut at 20 DKP, 30 DKP, 15 DKP. LucasArts' LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga (Wii) will debut at 70 DKP. The listings were submitted by Charron, munaaf, and argon.

June 5, Wednesday: Disney Interactive's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End for the Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, DS, PSP, and PC will both debut at 70 DKP, 30 DKP, 40 DKP, 65 DKP, 25 DKP, 25 DKP, 20 DKP. The listings were submitted by fergrocks.

June 6, Thursday: Ubisofts's Call of Juarez for the Xbox 360 and PC will debut at 40 DKP and 15 DKP. Perpetual Entertainment's Gods & Heroes Rome Rising (PC) will debut at 40 DKP. The game's listing was submitted by sbrousseau and gamegiants.

June 7, Friday: Microsoft's Tenchu Z, will debut at 40 DKP. Ubisoft's The Settlers (DS) will IPO at 50 DKP. Midway's Mortal Kombat: Armageddon (Wii) will IPO at 50 DKP. The listings were submitted by MotaFett, Electric_Sheep, Renagade242, and Keebs1984.

June 8, Saturday: Bethesda Softwork's Fallout 3 (PC) will debut at 200 DKP. The listing was submitted by Joe80.

The simExchange's newest feature, Wiki Release Dates, is now ready for testing. You can now suggest release dates for listed game stocks and game listings. You must be at least Community Level 2 to suggest changes and at least Community Level 4 to approve changes. You must provide a citation link to back up any release date you submit.

You can suggest a release date change by clicking on the "Edit Wiki Date" link at the bottom of the game's summary. This will bring you to a page similar to the Wiki Summaries. You can click "Suggest new release date" to add an entry. You can bid on other suggestions as well as comment on those suggestions.

To continue the simExchange's support for the international gaming community, release dates are now available for four regions: United States, Japan, Europe, and Australia. Each region is identified by the appropriate flag icon.

Please report any problems you may encounter by using the Contact Us form.

The following is the IPO schedule for the week of May 28. The summaries for these stock listings are entirely user submitted with no editorial review. If the information is inaccurate, please suggest changes in the Wiki.

May 28, Monday: Memorial Day, no listings.

May 29, Tuesday: Bethesda Softwork's The Elder Scrolls Travels: Oblivion for the PSP will debut at 35 DKP. Atlus' Etrian Odyssey for the Nintendo DS will debut at 25 DKP. The listings were submitted by Raviv and Shadow Ninja.

May 30, Wednesday: Two MMORPGs will IPO. Sega's Shenmue Online (PC) and Webzen's Huxley (PC) will both debut at 30 DKP each. Webzen's Xbox 360 verion of Huxley will IPO as well at 75 DKP. The listings were submitted by thisisgil and BaronVonNapalm.

May 31, Thursday: Square-Enix's Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) will debut at 300 DKP. The game's listing was submitted by daedelus.

June 1, Friday: Atlus' RPG for the PS2, Persona 3, will debut at 38 DKP. Bethesda’s Rogue Warrior will also debut. Rogue Warrior (Xbox 360) will IPO at 100 DKP, Rogue Warrior (PS3) will IPO at 60 DKP, and Rogue Warrior (PC) will IPO at 35 DKP. The listings were submitted by Joe80 and Randomrage.

June 2, Saturday: Square Enix's Dragon Quest Swords: Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors (Wii) will IPO at 500 DKP. The listing was submitted by simulazn.

May 29 UPDATE: The IPO of Persona 3 (PS2) has been revised to 38 DKP from 28 DKP.