The following is the IPO schedule for the week of May 21. This week includes an IPO on Saturday.

May 21, Monday: Eidos Interactive's Infernal (PC) will debut on the simExchange at 25 DKP (forecasts 250,000 copies sold globally). Infernal is a new third-person shooter for Windows in which players take the role of Ryan Lennox, a fallen angel recruited by the Devil to restore the balance between good and evil. Lennox wields demonic powers that include pyrokinesis and teleportation. Submitted by suntzu.

Eidos Interactive's Touch the Dead (DS) will also debut on the simExchange on Monday, at 18 DKP (forecasts 180,000 copies sold globally). Touch the Dead is a shooter on rails. Pointing the stylus on baddies will shoot them. Reloading is done by dragging an icon of an ammo clip. The D-pad is used to cycle through weapons including a hand gun, a shotgun, a submachine gun, and a crowbar. The listing was submitted by Shrapnelmagnet.

May 22, Tuesday: Activision's (NASDAQ:ATVI) Shrek the Third for the Xbox 360, Wii, PS2, PSP, DS, and PC will debut on the simExchange at 35 DKP (forecasts 350,000 copies sold globally), 30 DKP, 40 DKP, 25 DKP, 25 DKP, and 20 DKP respectively. In Shrek the Third, players take control of characters from the Shrek movies: Shrek, Donkey, Puss-in-Boots, Fiona, and Arthur (introduced in Shrek the Third). The game is an interactive version of the movie, in which Shrek must find Arthur, the heir to the throne, while Prince Charming attempts to usurp power in Far Far Away. This adventure game features 20 levels in which you will use each character’s special abilities to combat baddies and solve puzzles. The listing was submitted by SyrinxPriest.

May 23, Wednesday: SouthPeak Interactive's Two Worlds for the Xbox 360 and PC will debut on the simExchange for 80 DKP and 40 DKP respectively. Two Worlds is a fantasy role-playing game featuring a non-linear storyline that emphasizes the importance of the player’s actions that shape the world around them. Two Worlds features a dynamic combat system and a large game world in which to explore and search for treasure. Unlike most other RPGs, in Two Worlds enemies and monsters in the game world do not respawn, creating a greater degree of realism. Submitted by Sonaive.

May 24, Thursday: Activision’s Enemy Territory: Quake Wars for the PC, Xbox 360 and PS3 will debut on the simExchange for 150 DKP, 100 DKP, 60 DKP respectively. Enemy Territory: Quake Wars is an online-focused first person shooter that lets players divide into two teams as they reenact the fictional human/Strogg war that serves as the basis for the famed Quake series. The game is set approximately 60 years in the future, as the alien Strogg suddenly invade Earth and the Global Defense Force must battle the invaders off the planet. Quake Wars focuses on teamwork, different classes, and infantry and vehicular combat. Certain unique features such as a online campaign mode makes it set to be a fun addition to the online-FPS genre. The game’s listing was submitted by Jayen and Joe80.

May 25, 2007, Friday: Square-Enix’s Dawn of Mana (PS2) will debut on the simExchange at 60 DKP. Dawn of Mana is the fourth game in the main Seiken Densetsu series of action RPGs and part of the World of Mana compilation of games. However, unlike previous games, Dawn of Mana is not an RPG, but an action/adventure game. This edition features interactive environments by utilizing Half-Life 2’s Havok engine. The game is played in 8 chapters, each with 5 parts. You can replay any chapter or part after you completed it. Most items are used immediately as you pick them up and shops are used to buy non-game items such as music tracks and movie clips. The game’s listing was submitted by jasonbay.

Microsoft's Halo 2 (PC) will debut on the simExchange for 60 DKP. Halo 2 for the PC is a Windows Vista port of the 2004 blockbuster hit for Xbox. Halo 2 for Windows brings the second chapter of the Master Chief’s fight against the Covenant to Windows Vista PCs. The game includes a new Tray & Play feature that allows you to begin playing the game within two minutes of placing the disc in your computer (to be more like console gaming). This version is designed for the Games for Windows – Live network. The game’s listing was submitted by CrAzZyYmAn.

May 26, 2007, Saturday: Blizzard’s Starcraft II (PC) will debut on the simExchange at 800 DKP (forecasts 8 million copies sold globally). Starcraft II is the long-awaited sequel to the 1998 hit PC real-time strategy game (RTS) Starcraft that also appear on N64 in 2000. The game will include the Terrans, Protoss, and Zerg races from the original game. The story takes place four years after the Brood War expansion. Many old units will be returning with new abilities along with entirely new units. Blizzard has said the races will play even more uniquely from each other. Starcraft II will also feature an overhauled Battle.net. The game's listing was submitted by SERAPHRowen, Hmmsphil, and Bungalow_Bob.

CNET News is featuring the simExchange in an article about how the video game prediction market can predict the video game market. The article compares the simExchange's projections for April console sales to those projections of Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. The article also discusses how prediction markets work and some of my thoughts about applying prediction market technology to the video game industry.

Data from the simExchange was also used in a Gamasutra sales analysis article yesterday.

The simExchange will begin trading US May 2007 console sales hybrid futures tomorrow. Like stocks, the prices of the hybrid futures contracts on IPO day will remain the same all day. These hybrid futures contracts forecast the unit sales NPD Group will report for the month of May 2007.

Xbox 360 US May 2007	18 DKP	180K units
PlayStation 3 US May 2007	10 DKP	100K units
Wii US May 2007	36 DKP	360K units
Nintendo DS US May 2007	47 DKP	470K units
PSP US May 2007	18 DKP	180K units

US April 2007 hybrid futures have expired and paid out. DS US April 2007 expired 14.2% lower to 47.10 DKP. PS3 US April 2007 expired 23.6% lower to 8.20 DKP following surprising low sales numbers for the month of April. PSP US April 2007 expired 3.9% lower to 18.30 DKP. Wii US April 2007 was the only futures contract to expire higher, up 12.7% to 36.00 DKP, as the Wii's supply in April exceeded the market's expections. Despite the release of the Xbox 360 Elite in April, Xbox 360 US April 2007 expired down 10.7% to 17.40 DKP. All futures contracts had been frozen from trading yesterday at 11:30 PM PST.

Last month was the first month the simExchange (the free to play video game stock market game) has traded monthly hybrid futures contracts to predict NPD US video game sales data. In this trial run, trading on the simExchange appeared to be relatively more accurate than expert predictions. To quickly review, the following table depicts actual sales as reported by NPD Group, the prediction by trading on the simExchange, the error of the simExchange's forecast, the prediction by leading Wall Street firm Wedbush Morgan, and the error of Wedbush Morgan's forecast:

US Hardware March 2007

NPD has released its findings for US April 2007 video game sales. The following charts compare actual sales numbers determined by the NPD Group with forecasts from market trading on the simExchange and predictions by leading Wall Street analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan.

US Hardware April 2007

The simExchange did not trade monthly hybrid futures for game software this month. However, NPD's Top 10 is still relevant for comparing how trading on the simExchange is forecasting lifetime, global sales of the games.

US Software Top 10 April 2007

Although data is still limited, initial predictions on the simExchange video game prediction market appear to be relatively accurate (compared with traditional predictors), and in some cases, absolutely accurate (compared with the actual result). The prediction market out performed the analyst on every prediction in March and was split in April.

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

Joining and playing the simExchange is completely free and does not involve any real money. To play, sign up here.

* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** GameDaily Biz, April 13, 2007
**** GameDaily Biz, May 14, 2007

It is now easier to reference articles, images, and videos in your heated debates on the simExchange. All user submitted content now have their own pages with permanent links. You can now comment on the articles, images, and videos, and these comments will show up for the related game’s stock and the community aggregated comments pages. Your comment will have a link that references the content you are talking about.

Article submissions now include a headline with a 60 character maximum and a summary with a 250 character maximum. Please continue to post descriptive headlines, but now you also get summary space to really make your argument about why that article is relevant to the stock. Your stock summary will automatically be submitted as a comment as well so there is no longer a need to post a comment connecting back to your new article submission.

With the listing of LittleBigPlanet, the simExchange community has been a flurry on how the stock should account for the game's sales. So far, operators of online gaming stores, Microsoft and its Xbox Live Arcade (XBLA), Nintendo and its Virtual Console (VC), and Sony and its PlayStation Network (PSN), have not publicly released unit sales data for game titles purchased on their online stores.

In the past, some amateur third-party studies have attempted to estimate such sales by intentionally scoring very low while playing the game and then submitting their scores to the rankings to see how low they go. This approximated the number of purchases based on those players who submit their scores. However, it is uncertain what portion of total customers actually submit their scores to the rankings.

LittleBigPlanet was listed on the simExchange on May 9, 2007. Current understanding of the game's distribution is that it will be released in retail packaging along with direct sales through PSN. No downloaded game has been listed on the simExchange in the past. This has resulted in questions on how to price LittleBigPlanet’s stock on the simExchange. Should the stock count only the sales through retail (like other game stocks) or include the sales delivered through online distribution (which appear to be difficult to estimate).

Such a hybrid distribution is relatively new and it is uncertain how the industry will account for all this in the future. However, hybrid distribution has been done before with Valve’s retail and Steam release of Half-Life 2. Would anyone argue that sales of Half-Life 2 over Steam were any less relevant than sales at Best Buy?

One goal of stock trading on the simExchange is to provide relevant forecasts for the gaming industry. Sales of LittleBigPlanet conducted over an online store are no less relevant than retail sales to Media Molecule (the developer of the game), Sony Corp (one benefactor of a successful game on the PS3 platform), and watchers of the industry (who are evaluating if such a product is worth developing).

But aren't online sales difficult to estimate for outsiders if Sony doesn’t break out numbers? The very structure of simExchange game stocks has always assumed the difficulty of ascertaining exact sales information and has always relied on analysis and extrapolation.

What is the point of having a prediction market track something that Sony Corp would already know with certainty? Although Sony likely would not need a third-party source to track its digital sales, trading on the simExchange is a forecast of what is to come, and not simply for tracking the past. Of course, having more reliable past sales data is advantageous for running forecasting models, a prediction market can still be applied to provide another perspective of the future.

Given this, it would make most sense for the LittleBigPlanet stock, and any similar stock, to represent the total sales of the underlying game, regardless of physical or digital distribution. The information problem is a similar one while the goal is the same.

May 14, Monday: Midway Games' Unreal Tournament 3 for the Xbox 360 will debut on the simExchange for 100 DKP. Like previous UT games, UT3 is primarily an online multiplayer game with a single player mode for players to practice with AI bots. The story is minimal as players are pitted against each other in a series of shooting matches as part of a Sci-Fi tournament. Epic promises the game will not be a prettier UT2004 but an entirely new game. Unreal Tournament 3 (PC) and Unreal Tournament 3 (PS3) are already listed. The game’s listing was submitted by jayen.

May 15, Tuesday: Square-Enix's Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers for the Wii will debut on the simExchange for 350 DKP. The game follows the series of Crystal Chronicles games established on the Nintendo GameCube. So far, a pre-rendered trailer has been unveiled, showing the classic chocobo and airship world of Final Fantasy. At this time, it is uncertain if the game play will be structured like the real-time fighting featured in Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles (GC) or like the traditional Final Fantasy game featuring menu-based combat. The game’s listing was submitted by Renegade242.

May 16, Wednesday: Nintendo Co Ltd's Battalion Wars 2 (Wii) will debut on the simExchange for 75 DKP. The game is the Wii sequel to Battalion Wars (GC), a spin off of Advance Wars, Nintendo’s military strategy games for the GBA and DS. Battalion Wars 2 is real-time strategy game involving ground, naval, and air combat. It will feature three online multiplayer modes, including an assault mode in which one player defends a base and the other player tries to destroy the base in a certain time period, a skirmish mode that has both players attacking, and a capture the flag mode. The game’s listing was submitted by Jyscal.

May 17, Thursday: Sony Corp's God of War: Chains of Olympus (PSP) will debut on the simExchange for 80 DKP. God of War: Chains of Olympus is the first God of War game made for the PSP and is an original game. The game promises to bring the epic scale of previous God of War games to a portable console, including over-the top combat and boss fights. Chains of Olympus is an original story that will "flesh out" the God of War Trilogy told on the home console. The game was submitted by kspraydad.

May 18, Friday: Microsoft's Alan Wake for the Xbox 360 and PC will debut on the simExchange for 50 DKP and 25 DKP respectively. Alan Wake tells the story of a best selling horror author whom based his first book on strange dreams he had prior to meeting his fiancé. His book is a success but his fiancé mysteriously vanishes. Wake is devastated and suffers from insomnia. He moves out to a small town in Washington state where he gets treatment from a sleep clinic. Wake meets a woman who is the spitting image of his fiancé and his dreams return, inspiring him to write a second book. However, as he writes, the town begins to change and resemble the horror story he is writing. The listings were submitted by FriscoKid and Penguin929.

The much anticipated wiki summaries feature has now been launched. You can suggest changes to the summary of any listed or unlisted games if you are Community Level 3 or higher. You can approve or deny wiki suggestions if you are Community Level 5. You can view all recent wiki suggestions on the Recent Wiki Summaries page. Check out the new Wiki Tutorial to learn all about it. Please report any bugs you encounter.

US April 2007 Hybrid Futures contracts are scheduled to expire at 11:30 PM Pacific on Wednesday, May 16, 2007. Contracts will be frozen from trading and will pay based on NPD’s report on Thursday evening (May 17, 2007).