Since our launch, many have asked how exactly the stocks on the simExchange work. "Do game stocks ever cash out?" "Are they ever manually marked to sales reports?" "How do you ensure prices are representative of sales?"

I’ve put together a draft explanation of why game stocks are structured the way they are and why they should work to predict video game sales along with their relevance for the video game industry. The article can be found in the new Academia section of the Help tab, direct link here.

Shares of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Crackdown, +5.11 DKP (+2.37%), for the Xbox 360 have skyrocketed 34.8% since the IPO four days ago, just after the demo's release on the Xbox Live Marketplace. The game stock opened for purchase at 160 DKP (forecasts 1.6 million copies sold worldwide over lifetime). Microsoft's announcement that spots for the upcoming Halo 3 multiplayer beta would be included with specially marked copies of Crackdown has immediately increased demand for the game. Gamesindustry.biz reported that "pre-orders for Crackdown have risen 25 per cent since Microsoft unveiled [the beta's inclusion]."

Hype surrounding the inclusion of the Halo 3 multiplayer beta seems to have successfully translated into interest for Crackdown itself (a true "Halo" effect one could say). Teamxbox reported "four-plus hour downloads" and described attempts to get the demo as a "traffic jam." This has resulted in very heavy buying of Crackdown (Xbox 360) stock, with 259,534 shares traded as of the time of this article. Shares closed up 26.64 DKP (+14.10%) yesterday to 215.64 DKP (forecasts 2.15 million copies sold worldwide over lifetime).

Trading in Star Trek: Legacy (Xbox 360) and Dungeons & Dragons Tactics (PSP) between 1:40PM PST and 2:30PM PST have been rolled backed to the 1:40PM PST state. This rollback was executed due to a particular user creating multiple accounts to bid up these stocks. The accounts in question have been suspended.

If you didn't get a confirmation email, don't fret because it's not unheard of. First check your "Spam" or "Bulk Mail" folders because automated emails are often tossed in there by your email service. Sometimes the emails don't even make it that far. If your confirmation email is nowhere in sight, please let us know by using the Ask a Question form in the Help section. Make sure you enter a real email address because we cannot respond to you if we don't have your email address (yes people have requested responses to non-existent email addresses in the past). If you have not received a response from us, we likely did not receive a working email address from you.

Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Mass Effect for the Xbox 360 will debut on the simExchange on Wednesday, January 31, 2007. It will be categorized under the Role-playing genre. Shares will open for purchase at 150 DKP (forecasts 1.5 million copies sold worldwide over lifetime). The release of this game is scheduled for 2007. The game listing was first submitted by Orkeater. The game’s page is found here. The summary of the game is:

Mass Effect will be the first of a trilogy of action role-playing games developed by Bioware exclusively for the Xbox 360. The game's story is set in the year 2183 when machines are said to be coming to invade the galaxy. The player takes the role of Commander Shepard whose mission is to stop the armies of a rogue agent. He soon discovers that there is a much greater threat.

The player controls a character and can give orders to squad members in combat simply by pressing a direction on the D-pad. Combat is real-time and the player controls the player's actions directly rather than selecting from a menu. You can also switch between characters at will or pause the game to issue more complex orders. To execute more sophisticated tactics, you can assign your characters moves and actions through a 2D grid similar to a chessboard.

Characters develop through skills you choose and how you advance them with experience points. They can be armed with various weapons such as guns and grenades. Changing a character’s armor will also change their appearance. Like previous Bioware games, morality plays a role in a character's development. Party members may leave if the player's moral alignment becomes unacceptable to them. The story is also affected by the player's choices, but to a lesser degree than previous Bioware games.

Mass Effect features a more fluid NPC conversation system where the player can choose dialogue options while an NPC is speaking. The conversation system features a pie-chart like menu where the player can choose categorical responses such as "friendly," "aggressive," or "threaten" rather than choosing a particular worded response. This allows the player to quickly play the desired role rather than reviewing the wording of each response.

Nintendo Ltd Co’s (ADR:NTDOY) Mario Party 8 for the Wii will debut on the simExchange on Tuesday, January 30, 2007. It will be categorized under the Minigame genre Shares will open for purchase at 180 DKP (forecasts 1.8 million copies sold worldwide over lifetime). The release of this game is scheduled for February 8, 2007 in Japan, February 23, 2007 in Europe, and March 5, 2007 in North America. The game listing was first submitted by Zukaus. The game’s page is found here. The summary of the game is:

Mario Party8 is the eleventh installment of the Mario Party series and the first for the Nintendo Wii. Mario Party is a collection of 75 multiplayer minigames designed for the motion-sensing Wiimote.

Players choose among 14 Nintendo characters to compete in minigames that include: a game where players use the controller like a lasso to grab barrels, a game where players shake the controller to shake a soda can so that it spouts soda when opened, and a game where players hold the Wiimote horizontally and tilt the controller to tilt a platform to move marbles into corresponding tubes.

Like previous Mario Party games, there are power-ups that players can collect to aid their character in different situations. Mario Party 8 can be played 1v1, 2v2, 1v3, and competitive 4 player.

It appears there are many more people out there to inform about the simExchange and Joystiq agrees (for those of you who don’t know, Joystiq is a great video game blog written by many many authors). Check out the new article on the simExchange at Joystiq here. Thanks guys!

The simExchange has been featured on Alex Kirtland’s UsableMarkets. This is a blog about prediction markets, specifically their usability. The article discusses how the simExchange focuses on video games, unlike many prediction markets that try to take it all on. Check out the article here. Be sure to Digg it! (there's a link at the end of the article).

The simExchange becomes more entertaining with more people trading and more informative with a more diverse pool of people sharing criticism and analysis on games. The stock prices will also become more accurate forecasters as more people bring more knowledge to the market. This recruitment has become an issue of discussion as of late as members have been looking for ways to get more people onto the site.

As many members have discussed, one effective means of promoting the simExchange is to add the context of simExchange stock prices to video game sales discussions on other forums. Many members have tried to do this at other forums and have brought more people to the simExchange market. There are many people out there who like to predict the potential of upcoming video games, they just don’t know where they can do it.

Similarly, if you write a blog, you can use the simExchange data as a resource to back your analysis about games. You can also add the closing price quote for any stock to your blog post or news article using the Tools for Bloggers.

Another way to help build awareness is to add the simExchange to your del.icio.us bookmarks. A number of members have done this already but it would be more effective to commonly classify the simExchange in the predictionmarkets and videogames sections. To do this simply add “predictionmarkets” and “videogames” as tags with your bookmark. Feel free to add any of the other tags that have been popular. If you’ve already added the simExchange as a del.icio.us bookmark, you can edit it on your “my del.icio.us” page.

If you are a Technorati member, the simExchange Official Blog has been listed here and you can add it to your favorites.

Some members have added the simExchange to new sites like Stumbleupon. If you know of other cool ways online to promote the simExchange please comment about them on this blog post. Thanks!

After declining from initially mediocre reviews, shares of Capcom Co's Lost Planet: Extreme Condition (Xbox 360), +2.64 DKP (+1.76%), have been on the rise following positive customer reviews and apparently strong initial demand. Capcom recently announced it has shipped a million copies of Lost Planet: Extreme Condition. This would make the game one of the most shipped Xbox 360 games coming from Japan. The stock closed up 3.09% to 149.61 DKP yesterday (forecasts 1.49 million copies sold worldwide over lifetime).