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Delistings for April 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:18PM on April 26, 2009

The following stocks are candidates for delisting. These stocks were chosen for delisting due to inactivity in the stock and/or lack of discussion for an extended period of time. Delisting stocks is necessary to unlock DKP for trading and concentrate DKP in the stocks people are trading.

All shares will cash out at the last traded price. This price is determined as the fair value as the market has not viewed the price as undervalued or overvalued for some time. These stocks will no longer appear when browsing the genres and platforms pages. You will still be able to view the stocks' pages by searching for the games.

If you feel any of the following should not be delisted due to an upcoming event (such as the game has not yet been released in all regions), please make a case and post in this forum by 11AM on Wednesday, April 29. A stock price that you are not happy with is not grounds for continued listing.

GLS Stocks pending delisting:
Far Cry 2 (Xbox 360)
Far Cry 2 (PS3)
Gran Turismo Prologue (PS3)
Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (PS3)
Midnight Club: Los Angeles (Xbox 360)
Midnight Club: Los Angeles (PS3)
Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm (PS3)
Ninja Gaiden 2 (Xbox 360)
Rock Band (Xbox 360)
Rock Band (Wii)
Samba De Amigo (Wii)
Saints Row 2 (Xbox 360)
Saints Row 2 (PS3)
Sonic Chronicles: The Dark Brotherhood (DS)
Viva Pinata 2: Trouble in Paradise (Xbox 360)



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GLS Stock IPOs for Week of April 20, 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 7:31PM on April 19, 2009

You will be able to buy or short sell Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) Stocks and Metacritic Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the stock's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.







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March 2009 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:30PM on April 16, 2009

Video game hardware sales in March 2009 significantly underperformed market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 1.88 million, over 21% worse than the market's expectation for 2.39 million units sold. This is a stark contrast to February, when console sales strongly outperformed expectations. Every console underperformed their respective expected sales. The market had likely guided March higher after February's robust results, and the declining economy has finally hit the video game business.

Growth in video game sales was negative year-over-year. Total video game software sales contracted a massive 17% from $952.14 million in March 2008 to $792.83 million. Traders on the simExchange prediction market expected $899.0 million in sales.

For comparison, March 2008 had seen the blockbuster release of Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii), that far outsold this month's leading Resident Evil release, with 2.7 million copies for Brawl vs 1.5 million copies for RE5. March 2008 also had the release of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2 and Army of Two, which performed better than this month's Halo Wars (Xbox 360). The strong anticipation for Brawl likely skewed March 2008 higher, but the sales of March 2009's leading titles may have sold better in a better economy considering how other new titles sold in March 2008.

The market also tracked the sales of Grand Theft Auto: China Town Wars (DS), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Future will cash out at 20.50 DKP.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in March 2009

    TitleActual unitsExpected units% From Expected
    Nintendo Wii 601,000 767,000 -21.66%
    Nintendo DS 563,000 665,900 -15.45%
    Xbox 360 330,000 413,100 -20.12%
    PLAYSTATION 3 218,000 319,700 -31.81%
    PlayStation Portable 168,000 225,000 -25.33%
    PlayStation 2 112,000 -- --
    Total Hardware Units 1,880,000 2,390,900 -21.37%


Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



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May & June 2009 Console Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:51PM on April 12, 2009

May & June Console Futures will be IPOing this week.

You will be able to buy or short sell the Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the future's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.





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GLS Stock IPOs for Week of April 5, 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:22PM on April 5, 2009

You will be able to buy or short sell Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) Stocks and Metacritic Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the stock's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.







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March 2009 Rankings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 1:16PM on April 2, 2009

Check out the complete March 2009 rankings.



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April 2009 Monthly Sales Futures IPO

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:14PM on March 25, 2009

April Monthly Sales Futures for software are making their debut tomorrow. Remember, there are new rules regarding Monthly Software Futures. If a game does not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title. Games receiving Monthly Sales Futures are suggested by Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). The games selected should have a 95% chance of making the Top 10 each month.

You will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the future's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

Games receiving Monthly Sales Futures are suggested by Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). The games selected should have a 95% chance of making the Top 10 each month.



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February 2009 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:33PM on March 19, 2009

Video game hardware sales in February 2009 strongly outperformed market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 2,207,000, 19% better than the market's expectation for 1,853,900 units sold. Every console strongly outperformed their respective expected sales. The market had likely predicted the economic recession to take its toll with flat month-over-month video game sales, but the consumer appeared to be more robust than anticipated.

Growth in video game sales were nearly 10% ahead of expectations for February. Total video game software sales grew 9% from $673.3 million in February 2008 to $733.5 million. Traders on the simExchange prediction market expected $666.9 million.

Sales of Street Fighter IV (Xbox 360) were the highlight, selling 446,000 copies, a whole 65.5% ahead of expectations for the title.

The market also tracked the sales of FEAR 2: Project Origin (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Future will cash out at 13.6 DKP.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in February 2009

    TitleActual unitsExpected units% From Expected
    Nintendo Wii 753,000 669,300 +12.51%
    Nintendo DS 588,000 492,000 +19.51%
    Xbox 360 391,000 302,500 +29.26%
    PLAYSTATION 3 276,000 224,100 +23.16%
    PlayStation Portable 199,000 166,000 +19.88%
    PlayStation 2 131,000 -- --
    Total Hardware Units 2,207,000 1,853,900 +19.05%


Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.



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GLS Stock IPOs for Week of March 16, 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 7:14PM on March 15, 2009

You will be able to buy or short sell Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) Stocks and Metacritic Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the stock's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.







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March 2009 Delistings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 5:36PM on March 15, 2009

In the past several weeks, we have listed a great number of new games for trading. We will be taking a break this week to consolidate the games we are predicting.

The following stocks are candidates for delisting. These stocks were chosen for delisting due to inactivity in the stock and/or lack of discussion for an extended period of time. Delisting stocks is necessary to unlock DKP for trading and concentrate DKP in the stocks people are trading.

All shares will cash out at the last traded price. This price is determined as the fair value as the market has not viewed the price as undervalued or overvalued for some time. These stocks will no longer appear when browsing the genres and platforms pages. You will still be able to view the stocks' pages by searching for the games.

If you feel any of the following should not be delisted due to an upcoming event (such as the game has not yet been released in all regions), please make a case and post in this forum by 11AM on Wednesday, March 18. A stock price that you are not happy with is not grounds for continued listing.

GLS Stocks pending delisting:
Battlefield: Bad Company (Xbox 360)
Battlefield: Bad Company (PS3)
Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway (Xbox 360)
Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway (PS3)
Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice (PS3)
Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon (PS3)
Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (DS)
Facebreaker (Xbox 360)
Facebreaker (PS3)
Facebreaker (Wii)
Final Fantasy IV DS (DS)
Forza Motorsport 2 (Xbox 360)
Fracture (Xbox 360)
Fracture (PS3)
Frontlines: Fuel of War (PC)
Hot Shots Golf: Out of Bounds (PS3)
Infinite Undiscovery (Xbox 360)
LEGO Batman: The Videogame (Wii)
LEGO Batman: The Videogame (PS3)
LEGO Batman: The Videogame (Xbox 360)
Project Gotham Racing 4 (Xbox 360)



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