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GLS Stock IPOs February-March

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:16PM on February 19, 2008

We have some huge titles making GLS Stock IPOs soon! Most titles will also have an accompanying Metacritic Future.

The following are upcoming GLS Stock IPOs. Remember, each stock enters a 48-hour IPO Phase 1 in which there is no market maker providing prices. Advanced trading mode is required to place orders in IPO Phase 1. After IPO Phase 1, the futures contracts will enter IPO Phase 2 in which the bid and ask prices will be fixed all day.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.




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January 2008 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:40PM on February 14, 2008

Video game hardware sales in January were below the market's expectations. Total hardware units came in at 1.227 million units, 23.86% below the market's expected 1.611 million units. The disappointing total hardware sales were largely due to surprising supply constraints with the Nintendo consoles. Nintendo Wii only sold 274,000 units, well below the market's 396,900 expectation. The Nintendo DS was even futher constrained, with only 251,000 units sold compared to the expected 483,700 units.

For the first time in the United States, the PS3 outsold the Xbox 360 with 269,000 units and 230,000 units respectively. The PS3 outperformed expectations by 28.5% while the Xbox 360 underperformed by 20.3%. This pattern illustrates the extreme mutability of video game hardware sales. Retailers will recognise the influence of consumer fads and technological improvements respectively, likewise website proprietors will also see familiar patterns. One moment a site like Poker dk could be the most popular online poker site, and a few months later it could be another site entirely.

Sony PSP sales were exactly inline with 230,000 units. The prediction market expected 233,000 units.

Growth in video game sales were well ahead of expectations for January, traditionally a slower month following the strong holiday season. Total video game software sales grew 11% from $549.5 million in January 2007 to $610.6 million.

The month's big winner was once again Activision's Call of Duty 4. The Xbox 360 SKU sold 330,900 units compared to an expectation of 359,700 units.

Sales of Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) slowed much faster than expected, dropping to 172,000 units. The prediction market expected the game to continue with 391,800 units sold.

Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii) crushed expectations with 239,600 units sold, 36% over the forecasted 175,900 units. This beats Rock Band (Xbox 360), which sold 183,800 units, just 6.84% below the expected 197,300 units.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.



How exactly does this work?

Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).


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April 2008 NPD Console Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 2:01PM on February 12, 2008

NPD Futures for April 2008 for the consoles will begin their IPO phases at the end of this week. Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii futures will debut on Thursday, February 14. Nintendo DS, PSP, and Total Software Sales futures will debut on Friday, Feburary 15.

As always, NPD Futures debut in two-phase IPOs. IPO Phase 1 is a 48 hour period of trading without automated market making to determine the IPO Phase 2 price. Advanced trading mode is required to place orders in IPO Phase 1. After IPO Phase 1, the futures contracts will enter IPO Phase 2 in which the bid and ask prices will be fixed all day.

We are also looking for game suggestions for April 2008. Please post in the forum here.


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The simExchange featured in Reuters

Posted by Brian Shiau at 6:14PM on February 7, 2008

Check out the latest review of the simExchange on Reuters. The article discusses how a prediction market for video games works and its impact and applications for analyzing the video game industry.


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January 2008 Rankings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:30AM on February 4, 2008

Congratulations to sagexsdx for placing first in the month of January 2008 with a 161.56% return. In second place was sonycowboy with a 148.45% return, followed by Mushashi with a 127.82% return. Itachiltachi and starship closed out the top five with 115.36% and 114.19% respectively.

On the Community League competitions, the performance of each league was very close. NeoGAF came out slightly ahead with a 23.40% return, followed by Evil Avatar with a 22.44% return, and then Cheap Ass Gamer with a 21.61% return. In terms of net worth, Cheap Ass Gamer accrued the most by a wide margin, with 335 million DKP, followed by NeoGAF with 252 million DKP and Evil Avatar with 119 million DKP. Accounting in February will be adjusted with the previously announced changes seen here.


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Yesterday's trading action

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:31AM on January 31, 2008

This has been a feature long requested and we are pleased to announce that you can now track yesterday's trading action. The page shows the most active, top gaining, and top losing stocks and futures. The page also shows the Your League results for yesterday. This should allow people to more quickly follow what happened by the end of the previous day.


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Changes to Community Leagues Competition

Posted by Brian Shiau at 12:48PM on January 29, 2008

Based on user feedback, we will be changing some of the accounting for the Community Leagues Competition. These rules are effective for February and will not affect the ongoing January standings. For a player to be counted for a community league's results in February, that player must have signed up for the community league before 11:55 PM on January 31, 2008. The player must also have made at least 5 trades in either stocks or futures. Players who sign up after the monthly deadline will still appear on the league pages to be able to compare themselves with other players of the community, but will not take part in the community's net worth until the next month.


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March 2008 NPD Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 2:00PM on January 27, 2008

We will be launching IPOs for March 2008 NPD Futures on Monday.

NPD Futures debut in two-phase IPOs. IPO Phase 1 is a 48 hour period of trading without automated market making to determine the IPO Phase 2 price. Advanced trading mode is required to place orders in IPO Phase 1. After IPO Phase 1, the futures contracts will enter IPO Phase 2 in which the bid and ask prices will be fixed all day.

Rainbow 6: Vegas 2 (Xbox 360) was submitted by gpa_kevin. Rainbow 6: Vegas 2 (PS3) was submitted by kspraydad. Crisis Core: Final Fantasy 7 (PSP) was submitted by xBlitzerx. Okami (Wii) was submitted by madoushi. Hot Shots Golf: Out of Bounds (PS3) was submitted by Joe80.




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March 2008 NPD Futures Candidates

Posted by Brian Shiau at 11:39AM on January 21, 2008

We are now looking for the community's suggestions for March 2008 NPD Futures. Simply post games you would like to see listed in the comments below.

All games must have a submission in the Unlisted Games section to be considered. Remember to bid up the games you would like to see listed as Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) stocks.


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December 2007 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:47PM on January 17, 2008

Video game hardware sales in December were below the market's expectations. Total hardware units came in at 6.938 million units, 13.04% below the market's expected 7.978 million units. Sales of all consoles, except for the PSP, were below the market expectations.

Many industry observers were concerned that the slowing US economy and slower holiday shopping this year would dampen game sales; however, strong sales in November may have lead the market into optimism for December. It appears the slower shopping this year did affect hardware sales.

As expected by the market, the Nintendo Wii lead home hardware sales with 1,350,000 units, below the expected 1,734,000 units. The miss in Wii sales is likely due to a shortage of supply as the console is sold out across America. Xbox 360 came in second for home consoles with 1,260,000 units sold, 8.75% below the market expectations of 1,461,000 units. Once again, the PS3 came in third with 797,600 units sold, just 8,75% below the market's expected 424,400 PS3 units to be sold.

Nintendo DS sold 2,470,000 units sold, compared to 2,854,000 expected unit sales. The PSP sold 1,060,000 units, inline with the expected 1,054,600 units.

Growth in video game sales were inline with expectations. Total video game software sales grew 36% from $1.74 billion in December 2006 to $2.37 billion, just 0.28% below the market's expected $2.38 billion.

The month's big winner was once again Activision's Call of Duty 4 which crushed market expectations again. The Xbox 360 SKU sold 1,470,000 units compared to an expectation of 929,900 units.

Sony's Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (PS3) also smashed expectations, selling 206,000 units, well ahead of the market's expectation of 139,900 units. Electronic Arts' Half-Life 2: The Orange Box (PS3) disappointed with only 56,500 units sold, compared to an expected 106,900 units.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in December 2007

    TitleActual unitsExpected units% From Expected
    Nintendo Wii 1,350,000 1,734,500 -22.17%
    Nintendo DS 2,470,000 2,854,000 -13.45%
    Xbox 360 1,260,000 1,461,000 -8.75%
    PlayStation Portable 1,060,000 1,054,600 +0.54%
    PLAYSTATION 3 797,600 874,100 -8.75%
    Total Hardware Units 6,937,600 7,978,200 -13.04%



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