NPD June sales data reviewed

This is the fourth month the simExchange video game prediction market has traded contracts on the NPD Group's monthly sales data. This month, the simExchange expanded its contract offerings to include 10 software SKUs.

PS3 sales came in line with market expectations at 98,500 units. The simExchange market expected 98,400 units to be sold in the month of June. Sales of Nintendo DS, Sony's PSP, and Microsoft's Xbox 360 exceeded the market's expectations while Nintendo's Wii underperformed expectations. Traders likely expected a larger supply of Wii units to be shipped into the US than Nintendo was capable. The PSP's price cut proved to be a stronger catalyst for sales than the market anticipated.

The PS3 results were the least surprising to the market (off -0.1%), while the Wii results were the most surprising to the market (off +13.62%). The PS3 futures contract was the most heavily traded futures contract on the simExchange with a total volume of 2,511,424 contracts traded. The Wii futures contract was traded for a total volume of 790,629 contracts.

Mario Party 8 lead the pack of software SKUs tracked by the simExchange, beating expectations. Microsoft's Forza Motorsport 2 came in second, inline with expectations. Electronic Arts' Harry Potter and the Order of The Phoenix significantly underperformed market expectations.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group. Expectations by leading analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan are also presented for comparison purposes.

US Hardware tracked by the simExchange in June 2007

US Software tracked by the simExchange in June 2007
(Not the Top 10 software SKUs of June 2007)

How exactly does this work?

Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions). Check out the simExchange's results in May, April, and March.

Copyright and reprinting

The simExchange, LLC retains the right to the content of this article but permits the reprinting of this article with proper credit to the simExchange. Sales data published here includes data disclosed with permission by the NPD Group exclusively for the purpose of settling futures contracts on the simExchange.

* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** Gamasutra, July 16, 2007